OFFICIAL RECORDS · ROUTE-LEVEL ANSWERS

What are the odds your flight is late?

Compare on-time arrivals, long delays and cancellations for U.S. airport pairs—with the airline, departure time, weekday and monthly evidence behind every number.

Enter three-letter U.S. airport codes. Historical results for July 2025–June 2026.

ROUTEON TIME30+ MINCANCEL

LGA → ORD63.8%22.5%4.9%

ORD → LGA63.7%23.1%4.7%

SFO → LAX73.3%17.0%0.8%

LAX → SFO64.2%24.0%0.8%

LAX → JFK77.1%14.2%2.0%

JFK → LAX76.0%14.6%1.9%

OGG → HNL83.7%7.3%1.1%

ARRIVAL PERFORMANCE · ALL SCHEDULED REPORTABLE FLIGHTS

7,043,316 flights analyzed4,659 published routes358 airport codesSource: U.S. BTS

ONE ROUTE IS NOT ANOTHER

Direction, time and airline all change the odds.

A national average cannot tell you whether the 6 a.m. flight from Boston to Chicago is a safer bet than the evening departure. DelayOdds keeps the comparison at route level, then shows the slices that can actually inform a booking decision.

Every percentage links back to its sample and time window. No hidden “AI score,” no live-status theatre.

Reported flights7,043,316Jul 2025–Jun 2026

Published routes4,659240+ flights each

Airport codes358Domestic reports

Delay thresholds15 / 30 / 60minutes after schedule

STRONG LARGE-SAMPLE ROUTES

Routes that kept the schedule

SEARCH ALL ROUTES →

HNL→OGGHonolulu, HI (HNL) to Kahului, HI (OGG)10,176 flights analyzedLower disruption83.8%on time OGG→HNLKahului, HI (OGG) to Honolulu, HI (HNL)10,178 flights analyzedLower disruption83.7%on time SFO→LAXSan Francisco, CA (SFO) to Los Angeles, CA (LAX)11,015 flights analyzedGenerally reliable73.3%on time LAX→JFKLos Angeles, CA (LAX) to New York, NY (JFK)10,287 flights analyzedGenerally reliable77.1%on time JFK→LAXNew York, NY (JFK) to Los Angeles, CA (LAX)10,284 flights analyzedGenerally reliable76.0%on time LGA→ORDNew York, NY (LGA) to Chicago, IL (ORD)11,625 flights analyzedHigher disruption63.8%on time ORD→LGAChicago, IL (ORD) to New York, NY (LGA)11,625 flights analyzedHigher disruption63.7%on time LAX→SFOLos Angeles, CA (LAX) to San Francisco, CA (SFO)11,013 flights analyzedVariable64.2%on time PHX→DENPhoenix, AZ (PHX) to Denver, CO (DEN)8,920 flights analyzedGenerally reliable76.4%on time DEN→PHXDenver, CO (DEN) to Phoenix, AZ (PHX)8,930 flights analyzedGenerally reliable75.0%on time LAS→LAXLas Vegas, NV (LAS) to Los Angeles, CA (LAX)8,325 flights analyzedGenerally reliable78.2%on time HNL→LIHHonolulu, HI (HNL) to Lihue, HI (LIH)7,755 flights analyzedLower disruption83.6%on time

HOW TO READ THE BOARD

Three numbers. One honest sample.

On-time odds

The share of every scheduled reportable flight that completed and arrived less than 15 minutes after schedule.

Disruption odds

See 30-, 60- and 120-minute delay rates alongside cancellations and diversions. They are not blended away.

Useful comparisons

Check airline, time-of-day, weekday and month tables. Thin samples are withheld instead of dressed up as certainty.